Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
